Muscat,
The forecasts of the GCC Statistical Centre (GCC-Stat) indicate that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the GCC countries constant prices will grow by 3.7% in the current year 2024. The Centre expects growth to continue at a higher pace in 2025 to reach 4.5%, then it will stabilize at a rate of 3.5% in 2026.
The GCC-Stat forecasts that this expected growth for the years 2024, 2025 and 2026 is attributed to the increase in oil production in the GCC countries, especially in light of the fact thatthe OPEC+ alliance is gradually liberalizing production quotas since the second half of this year 2024.
The growth will continue in particular with the development of new gas fields in the region, in addition to the accelerated pace of economic recovery in sectors related to transportation, tourism and infrastructure projects supported by expansionary policies at the level of public finance.
The initial forecasts issued by the GCC-Stat also indicated an improved growth in the non-oil sector in the GCC Countries to register a growth rate of 4.5% during the current year 2024, while maintaining this growth rate with an increase of 3.3% and 4.1% in 2025 and 2026 respectively.
This growth will be driven by an accelerated increase in private sector activities, especially in the tourism, transportation, storage and retail sectors. In addition, infrastructure projects in the GCC countries will contribute to enhancing growth in related sectors and stimulating growth in the private sector.
The forecasts also emphasize that the GCC countries’ continued implementation of economic diversification strategies during the years 2024 – 2026 will lead to significant growth in key sectors, most notably renewable energy, technology, innovation, and manufacturing industries.
The GCC-Stat demonstrated that the GDP at constant prices of the GCC countries during the year 2023 amounted to 1,691.8 billion US dollars to log a growth of 0.5% compared to the year 2022, as the added value of the non-oil sector witnessed a growth of 3.3% in 2023.
The average per capita GDP at current prices in the GCC countries witnessed a decline of 5% in 2023 to reach 36.7 thousand US dollars compared to 38.6 thousand US dollars registeredin 2022.
The GCC countries’ GDP at current prices contributed to 2% of the global GDP, which amounted to 105.4 trillion US dollars in 2023. It accounted for 60.5% of the total Arab GDP, which amounted to 3.5 trillion US dollars.
On the other hand, the GCC-Stat’s forecasts that inflation rates in the GCC countries will stabilize at 2.4%, 2.6% and 2.1% during the period of2024 – 2026. The risks that may increase inflationary pressures are represented by consumer prices, the rise in prices of raw materials imported from outside the GCC countries, the increase in consumption rates and public spending in all GCC countries due to the increase in employment rates, the rise in wages and the improvement in household income.
Additionally, the monetary policies in the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan in keeping interest rates to curb inflationary pressures will contribute to the stabilization of inflation rates in the GCC countries.
The data issued by the Centre show that consumer price inflation rate in the GCC countries in 2023 reached about 2.2%, down from the rate logged in 2022, which amounted to 3.1%. This happened due to the improvement in supply chains, the decline in crude oil prices, the decrease in global food prices, and the rise of the US dollar against major currencies. It is noteworthy that the currencies of the GCC countries are being pegged to the US dollar.
